Rising brics and changes in sub-saharan africa’s business cycle patterns

• Journal: The World Economy, 2016, 39: pp. 260-284..

• Publication date: February 2016.
• Co-author: Oumar Diallo (United Nations Secretariat).

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favor of the BRIC. Trade with the BRIC has been the strongest driver of this shift. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRIC are not synchronized, they have not caused output correlation. Also, financial openness, which is at an early stage in SSA, has acted as a neutral force.

WP versions:

“Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries,” IMF Working Paper 18/63.

“Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 8308